DSC 425/525

COURSE OBJECTIVES

In the broadest terms, decision analysis helps us structure the way we think about decisions situations in which we find ourselves. This course will give you an overview of decision-analysis concepts and tools. We will be dealing with situations that are complicated by uncertainty and conflicting objectives. My aim is that you adopt the decision-analysis framework for addressing your decisions, develop some skill in using the framework, and gain some familiarity with basic decision-analysis tools (mathematical modeling, subjective assessment, computer-based methods, and others).

APPROACH

Instead of a standard "Textbook-lecture-problems" course, I intend to run the course in a way that will get us involved in some meaningful decision modeling and analysis. The course will be highly participatory. You will often be working in small groups.

COURSE REQUIREMENTS

1. ASSIGNMENTS. As we proceed through the term there will be a few exercises and assignments related to the reading and the projects. These will be relatively straightforward, designed to help you grasp the essence of the material. I encourage you to work together in teams of up to three people on these assignments.

2. TERM PROJECT. In addition to the assignments, you will choose a term project to work on. I am quite flexible about the project you choose. You may work on an individual project, or you may work as part of a team on a larger project. An individual project would typically involve identifying a particular personal decision situation (for example a job or career choice), structuring your values, identifying alternatives, collecting and modeling information about these alternatives, and doing appropriate analysis to help make the choice. A team project might involve analysis of a decision situation that a company or agency faces.

A detailed description of the project requirement will be handed out so that you can make a meaningful decision. (Choosing your project is a place where you can use decision analysis!) For now, keep in mind that there will be at least three check points. First, you will have to submit a project proposal to me no later than April 25. The second checkpoint is a status report, due on May 16. The final report will be due on Wednesday, June 12 (i.e., Wednesday of Finals Week).

3. CLASS PARTICIPATION. As indicated above, the course will involve a lot of participation. Although there will be a few lectures and demonstrations, many if not most of our sessions will involve some sort of participatory learning. I have developed a good way of keeping track of contributions during class discussions. Thus, at the end of the term, I will have a meaningful record on the basis of which to evaluate your performance in this aspect of the course.

In order for our classroom discussions to be productive, it will be important for you to do the reading and preparation conscientiously prior to coming to class. You will not be an effective class participant without having prepared. I will give specific assignments regarding the reading to be done.

Many instructors argue that the classroom-discussion format that we will adopt is good because it makes you think on your feet and because you need to learn how to make and present persuasive arguments to support your opinions. That may be true. But the real reason we are pursuing this particular format is that class-discussion and cooperative-learning exercises are perfect ways to explore decision-making issues. This approach simply works better in terms of the students learning, understanding, and feeling good about the learning process. Besides, it's a lot more fun.

GRADING

Here is an approximate breakdown of the weights I will use in determining your final grade in the course:

Lessons/participation 20%

Term project 40%

Quizzes 40%

TEXTBOOKS

Required text: Making Hard Decisions, Second Edition by Robert T. Clemen. Boston, MA: PWS-Kent (1996). Available at the bookstore.

Optional text: Value-Focused Thinking, by Ralph Keeney. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press (1992). A few copies are available in the bookstore.

PREREQUISITES

Strictly speaking, basic statistics (DSC 330 or the equivalent) is a prerequisite for this course. The issue, though, is not so much remembering all those details about doing applied statistics. The important part is probability. We will be using probability concepts and tools liberally throughout the course, and I will assume that you have an understanding of basic probability principles. If you need a refresher, read Chapter 7 in Making Hard Decisions.

On the surface, decision analysis is not as quantitative as some other decision-science courses. However, this does not mean that we do not use quantitative analysis or that the course is easy or "soft." In fact, the more I teach this material, the more I realize that the level of the math is trivial, but the level of the analysis is quite high. To be successful you need to be comfortable with the idea of using a mathematical model to get insight into a problem. You need to be willing to "play around" with different ways to model a problem and different analytical approaches. All of this requires some maturity in using quantitative tools. Moreover, there will rarely be a straightforward "cookbook" solution to a meaningful problem, and so you will have to have some tolerance for ambiguous situations, inadequate information, and "messy" (i.e., realistic) problems.

COURSE SCHEDULE (to be adjusted as appropriate)

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