ENV
385 : Environmental Decision Analysis
Spring 2003; M, W 11:45 –
1:00; A247 LSRC
READINGS
Assigned
readings outside of the Clemen text will be available on E-reserve, in the NS
reading room, and/or in the BioSci library (books).
Text
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Clemen, Robert T. & Reilly, Terence. Making Hard
Decisions with DecisionTools, 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press,
Belmont, CA (available at bookstore and on reserve at Biosci)
This is the old version of the book, which contains no
software (although you can purchase the right to use the software
separately):
Clemen, Robert T. 1996. Making Hard Decisions: An
Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
Supplemental Texts
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Behn, R.D. and J.W. Vaupel, 1982. Quick Analysis for Busy
Decision Makers, Basic Books, New York, NY. (Biosci reserve). Appendix to
ch. 4 and ch. 11 on E-reserve and in NS RR.
Hammond, J.S., R.L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, 1999. Smart
Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Boston, Mass., Harvard
Business School Press. (Biosci reserve).
Meyer, M. and J. Booker. 1991. Eliciting and Analyzing
Expert Judgement: A Practical Guide. Knowledge-Based Systems, Vol.
5 Academic Press, London. (Biosci reserve) Part I, parts of ch. 6, 7
and ch. 10 on E-reserve and in NS RR.
Part I: Introduction to Expert Judgment, and see
chart at end of ch. 1 that describes what is covered in each section of
book.
Part II: Deals with all phases of
elicitation. Many chapters will be useful, esp. ch. 10, Conducting the
Elicitation. But, also see in ch. 6, the sections on Motivating Experts to
Participate and on common difficulties. And in ch. 7, the first section,
Determining which Components Are Needed, and sections on Selecting Modes of
Communication and on Selecting from Response Modes. The end of every
chapter has a section on “common difficulties,” which can be used to get help
with solving problems that arise.
Part III: Deals with
statistical analysis of resulting data. We won’t do so much with this in
our course.
Morgan, M. Granger and Max Henrion, 1990. Uncertainty. A
guide to dealing with uncertainty in qualitative risk and policy analysis,
New York, Cambridge University Press. (Biosci reserve) Ch. 6,7 on
E-reserve and in NS RR.
Ch. 6 and 7 deal with much the same material as Meyer
and Booker, in less detail and with fewer practical examples (and with fewer
typos).
Raiffa, H., 1968. Decision Analysis, Addison-Wesley,
Reading, MA.(Biosci reserve) ex.from ch. 2 on E-reserve and in NS RR.
von Winterfeldt, D. and W. Edwards, 1986. Decision
Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge. Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK.
(Biosci reserve) Ch. 8 on E-reserve and in NS RR.
Selected
Bibliography
This bibliography is intended to provide you with a
variety of examples of applications of decision and risk methods to
environmental problems. Don’t believe everything that you read!
Values Structuring & Objectives Hierarchies
Edwards, W. and D. von Winterfelt, 1987. "Public values in
risk debates", Decision Analysis,7:141:158.
Gregory, R. and R.L. Keeney. 1994. Creating
policy alternatives using stakeholder values. Management Science
40:1035-1048.
Keeney, R.L., 1988. Structuring objectives for problems of
public interest. Operations Research,36:396-405.
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-Focused Thinking. Carmbridge,
MA, Harvard University Press. 416 pp.
Keeney, R.L. and T.L. McDaniels, 1992. "Value-focused
thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro", Interfaces,
22(6):94-109.
Keeney, R.L., D. von Winterfelt, and T. Eppel, 1990.
"Eliciting public values for complex policy decisions", Management
Science, 36(9):1011-1030.
Keeney, R.L. 1994. Creativity in decision making
with value-focused thinking. Sloan Management Review, Summer,
pp.33-41.
Vargas, L.G., 1990. An overview of the Analytic Hierarchy
Process and its applications. European Journal of Operational
Research,48: 2-8. North-Holland.
Subjective Probability
Berger, J.O. 1985. Statistical Decision Theory and
Bayesian Analysis, Springer-Verlag.
Berger, J.O., D.A. Berry, 1988. “Statistical Analysis and the
Illusion of Objectivity. American Scientist. 76: 159-165.
Cooke, Roger M., 1991. Experts in uncertainty. Opinion and
subjective probability in science. New York, Oxford University Press.
Lee, Peter M., 1989. Bayesian Statistics: an
introduction, New York, Halstead Press (John Wiley).
Meyer, M., and J. Booker. 1991. Eliciting and Analyzing
Expert Judgment, a Practical Guide. Academic Press. London. 452 pp.
Pratt, John W., Howard Raiffa, and Robert Schlaifer, 1995.
Introduction to statistical decision theory, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.
Winkler, Robert L., 1972. An introduction to Bayesian
inference and decision, New York, Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
Wright, George and Peter Ayton (eds.), 1987. Judgmental
Forecasting, New York, John Wiley & Sons.
Wright, George and Peter Ayton (eds.), 1994. Subjective
Probability, New York, John Wiley & Sons.
Decision Behavior
Clemen, R., and R. Winkler, 1985. Limits for the precision
and value of information from dependent sources. Operations Research,
33: 427-442.
Hogarth, Robin M., 1987. Judgment and choice. The
psychology of decision. New York, John Wiley & Sons.
Howard, R.A., 1988. Decision analysis: practice and
promise.Management Science. 34(6): 679-695.
Kahneman, Daniel, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (eds.),
1982. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, New York,
Cambridge University Press.
Keeney, R.L., 1982. Decision analysis: an overview.
Operations Research, 30(5): 803-837.
Watson, S.R. and Buende, D.M. 1987. Decision
Synthesis. The principles and practice of decision analysis.
Cambridge (UK), Cambridge University Press.
Wright, George (ed.), 1985. Behavioral Decision Making. New York, Plenum Press.
Uncertainty
Anderson, J.L., 1998. Embracing uncertainty, Conserv.
Ecol, 2: 1. http://www.consecol.org/Journal/
Finkel, Adam M., 1990. Confronting uncertainty in risk
management, Washington, DC, Center for Risk Management, Resources for the
Future.
Oreskes, Naomi, Kristin Shrader-Frechette, Kenneth Belitz,
1994. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the
earth sciences, Science, 263(4th February issue), pp.
641-646.
Reckhow, K.H. 1994. Importance of scientific uncertainty in
decision making, Environmental Management,18(2), pp. 161-166.
Reckhow, K.H. 1994. A decision analytic framework for
environmental analysis and simulation modeling, Environmental Toxicology
& Chemistry, 13:1901-1906.
Rowe, W.D., 1994. Understanding uncertainty, Risk
Analysis, 14(5):743-750.
Anandalingam, G., 1987. A multiple criteria decision analytic
approach for evaluating acid rain policy choices. European Journal of
Operational Research, 29:336-352.
Dunning, D.J., Q.E. Ross, and M.W. Merkhofer. 2000.
Multiattribute utility analysis for addressing Section 316(b) of the Clean Water
Act. Environmental Science and Policy, 3:S7-S14.
Goicoechea, A., E.Z. Stakhiv, and F. Li, 1992. Experimental
evaluation of multiple criteria decision models for application to water
resources planning. Water Resources Bulletin, 28(1): 89-102.
Insua, D.R., and K.A. Salewicz, 1995. The operation of Lake
Kariba: a multiobjective decision analysis. Journal of Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis, 4:203-222.
Kadvany, J. 1995. From comparative risk to decision analysis:
ranking solutions to multiple-value environmental rroblems. Risk : Health,
Safety & Environment,6: 333-358.
Keeney, R.L. 1977. A utility function for examining policy
affecting salmon on the Skeena River. J. Fish. Res. Board Can.,
34: 49-63.
McDaniels, T.L. 1995. Using judgment in resource management:
a multiple objective analysis of a fisheries management decision. Operations
Research, 43(3): 415-426.
Merkhofer, Miley W., Rarilee Conway, and Robert G. Anderson.
1997. Multiattribute utility analysis as a framework for public participation in
siting a hazardous waste management facility. Environmental
Management,21(6): 831-839.
Merkhofer, M.W., and R.L. Keeney, 1987. A multiattribute
utility analysis of alternative sites for the disposal of nuclear waste.Risk
Analysis, 7(2):173-194.
Stewart, T.J. 1992. A critical survey on the status of
Multiple Criteria Decision making theory and practice. Int. J. of Mgmt
Sci., 20: 569-586.
Van Herwijnen, M., P. Rietveld, K. Thevenet, and R. Tol,
1995. Sensitivity analysis with interdependent criteria for multicriteria
decision making: the case of soil pollution treatment. Journal of
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 4:57-70.
Maguire, L. A. and H. Sondak. 1998. Can using
decision analysis and dispute resolution techniques to solve environmental
problems help promote equity? Pp.97-120 in Statistics in Ecology and
Environmental Monitoring 2: Risk Assessment and Decision Making in
Biology. D. J. Fletcher, L. Kavalieris and B.F.J. Manly, eds. Otago
University Press, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Maguire, L. A., and L. G. Boiney. 1994. Resolving
environmental disputes : A framework incorporating decision analysis and dispute
resolution techniques. J. Environ. Mgmt. 42:31-48.
This is the "bible" on interest-based
negotiation:
Fisher, R. and Ury, W. 1991. Getting to Yes:
negotiating agreement without giving in, 2nd ed. New York:
Penguin Books.
This paper describes disputes of the sort we're dealing
with:
Ozawa, C.P. and Susskind, L. 1985. Mediating Science
Intensive Policy Disputes. J of Policy Analysis and Management 5(1):
23-39.
Two good books on managing public disputes
are:
Kennedy and Carpenter. Managing public
disputes.
Susskind and Cruikshank. Breaking the impasse.
Raiffa's book on negotiation is:
H. Raiffa. 1982. The Art and Science of Negotiation.
Also very good on meshing of decision analysis and
negotiation is:
Lax and Sebenius. The Manager as
Negotiator.
Environmental Management Applications and Case
Studies
Bentley, W.R. and H.F. Kaiser, Jr., 1967. Sequential
decisions in timber management-a Christmas tree case study. Journal of
Forestry, October.
Betters, D.R. and J.C. Schaefer, 1981. A generalized Monte
Carlo simulation model for decision risk analysis illustrated with a Dutch elm
disease control example. Can. J. For. Res.,11:342-350.
Bisset, R., 1980. Methods for environmental impact
analysis: recent trends and future prospects. Journal of Environmental
Management, 11:27-43.
Cohan, D., S.M. Haas, D.L. Radloff, and R.F. Yancik, 1984.
Using fire in forest management: decision making under uncertainty.
Interfaces, 14(5): 8-19.
Cowan, J.H., R.E. Turner, and D.R. Cahoon, 1988. Marsh
management plans in practice: do they work in coastal Louisiana, USA?
Environmental Management, 12(1): 37-53.
DiNardo, G., D. Levy, and B. Golden, 1989. Using decision
analysis to manage Maryland’s river herring fishery: an application of AHP.
Journal of Environmental Management, 29: 193-213.
Fernandes, L., M.A. Ridgley, and T. van’t Hof. 1999. Multiple
criteria analysis integrates economic, ecological and social objectives for
coral reef managers. Coral Reefs 18:393-402.
Hilborn, R. and C.J. Walters, 1977. Differing goals of salmon
management on the Skeena River. J. Fish. Res. Board Can.,
34:64-72
Keeney, R.L, 1977. A utility function for examining policy
affecting salmon on the Skeena River. J. Fish. Res. Board Can.,
34:49-63.
Linder, E. and G.P. Patil, 1987. Application of event tree
risk analysis to fisheries management. Ecological Modelling,
36:15-28.
Maguire, L.A., 1988. Decision analysis: an integrated
approach to ecosystem exploitation and rehabilitation decisions. In: J. Cairns,
Jr. (ed.), Rehabilitating damaged ecosystems. Vol. 2. CRC Press, Boca
Raton, FL.
Maguire, L.A., 1986. Using decision analysis to manage
endangered species populations. Journal of Environmental Management,
22:345-360.
Maguire, L.A., 1987. Decision analysis: a tool for tiger
conservation and management. In: R.L. Tilson and U.S. Seal (eds.) Tigers of
the World. Noyes Publications, Park Ridge, NJ.
Maguire, L.A. and L.G. Boiney, 1994. Resolving environmental
disputes: a framework incorporating decision analysis and dispute resolution
techniques. Journal of Environmental Management, 42:31-48.
Maguire, L.A., T.W. Clark, R. Crete, J. Cada, C. Groves, M.L.
Shaffer, and U.S. Seal, 1988. Black-footed ferret recovery in Montana: a
decision analysis. Wildl. Soc. Bull.,16:111-120.
Maguire, L.A. and R.C. Lacy, 1990. Allocating scarce
resources for conservation of endangered subspecies: partitioning zoo space for
tigers. Conservation Biology, 4:157-166.
Maguire, L.A. and C. Servheen, 1992. Integrating biological
and sociological concerns in endangered species management: augmentation of
Grizzly bear populations. Conservation Biology, 6:426-434.
McDaniels, T.L., 1992. "Decision analysis insights for old
growth forest conflicts", Environments,21(3):39-52.
Nnaji, S.,S. J. Fisher, and S.V. Shabica, 1983. An
application of decision analysis to shoreline management. Journal of
Environmental Management, 17:35-46.
Norton, G.A., and B.H. Walker, 1985. A decision analysis
approach to savannah management. Journal of Environmental
Management, 21:15-31.
Ralls, K., and A.M. Starfield, 1995. Choosing a management
strategy: two structured decision-making methods for evaluatting the predictions
of stochastic simulation models. Conservation Biology, 9(1):
175-181.
Ridgley, M.A. and D.K. Chai, 1990. Evaluating potential
biotic benefits from conservation: Anchialine ponds in Hawaii. The
Environmental Professional, 12: 214-228.
Talerico, R.L., C.M. Newton, and H.T. Valentine, 1978.
Pest-control decisions by decision-tree analysis. Journal of Forestry,
January.
Thibodeau, F.R., 1983. Endangered species: deciding which
species to save. Environmental Management,7:101-107.
Bogen, K.T. and R.C. Spear, 1987. Integrating uncertainty and
interindividual variability in environmental risk assessment. Risk
Analysis, 7:427-436
Edwards, W. and D. von Winterfeldt, 1987. Public values in
risk debates. Decision Analysis, 7:141-158.
Finkel, Adam M., 1994. Risk assessment research: only the
beginning, Risk Analysis, 14(6), pp. 907-911.
Finkel, A.M. and J.S. Evans, 1987. Evaluating the benefits of
uncertainty reduction in environmental health risk management. JAPCA,
37:1164-1171.
Henrion, M. and M.G. Morgan, 1985. A computer aid for risk
and other policy analysis. Risk Analysis,5:195.
Hoffman, F. Owen, and Jana S. Hammonds, 1994. "Propagation of
uncertainty in risk assessments: the need to distinguish between uncertainty due
to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability", Risk Analysis,
14(5):707-712.
Hollick, M., 1981. The role of quantitative decision-making
methods in environmental impact assessment. Journal of Environmental
Management, 12:65-78.
Kadvany, J. 1996. Taming chance: risk and the quantification
of uncertainty. Policy Sciences, 29: 1-27.
Kunreuther, H.C. et al., 1983. Risk analysis and decision
process. IIASA, Springer.
Nichols, A.L. and R.J. Zeckhauser, 1986. The perils of
prudence: how conservative risk assessments distort regulation.
Regulation,10:13.
Parkhurst, D.F., 1984. Decision analysis for toxic waste
releases. Journal of Environmental Management, 18:105-130.
Russell, M. and M. Gruber, 1987. Risk assessment in
environmental policy-making. Science,236:286-290.
Stewart, T.R. and T.M. Leschine, 1986. Judgment and analysis
in oil spill risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 6:305.
US EPA, 1992. Framework for ecological risk assessment.
EPA/630/R-92/001. Risk Assessment Forum, US EPA Washington D.C.
20460
Winkler, R.L. and R.K. Sarin, 1981. Risk assessment:
consulting the experts. The Environmental Professional,
3(3/4):265-276
Borsuk, M. R.L. Clemen, L.A.
Maguire, and K.Reckhow. 2001. Stakeholder values and scientific modeling in the
Neuse River watershed. 2001. Group Decision and Negotiation
10:355-373.
Ellis, H.M. and R.L. Keeny, 1972. "A rational approach for
governmental decisions concerning air pollution", in A.W. Drake et al. (eds.),
Analysis of Public Systems, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.
Goicoechea, A., E.Z. Stakhiv, and F. Li, 1992. Experimental
evaluation of multiple criteria decision models for application to water
resources planning. Water Resources Bulletin., 28:89-102.
Keeney, R.L., R.K. Sarin, and R.L. Winkler, 1984. Analysis of
alternative national ambient carbon monoxide standards. Management
Science, 30:518.
Keeney, R.L. and E.F. Wood, 1977. An illustrative example of
the use of multiattribute utility theory for water resource planning.Water
Resources Research, 13:705-712.
Morgan, M. Granger, Samuel C. Morris, Max Henrion, Deborah
A.L. Amaral, and William Rish, 1984. "Technical uncertainty in quantitative
policy analysis-a sulfur air pollution example", with comments, Risk
Analysis, 4(3): 201-220
Reckhow, K.H. 1985. Decision theory applied to lake
management. In: Proceedings of the North American Lake Management Society
Conference, p. 196-200.
Reckhow, K.H. 1994. Water quality simulation modeling and
uncertainty analysis for risk assessment and decision making. Ecological
Modelling, 72:1-20.
Reckhow, K.H. 1994. Scientific analysis and simulation
modeling within a decision support system. Environmental Toxicology and
Chemistry, 13: 1901-1906.
Reckhow, K.H. 1994. The importance of scientific information
in decision making. Environmental Management, 18:161-166.
Ridgley, M.A., 1992. Multicriteria analysis of estuary
restoration in the Rhine Delta. In: Proceedings of the tenth international
conference on multiple criteria decision making(vol. 4), Taipei,
1992.