 |
Decision Analysis Presentations
INFORMS Salt Lake City, Spring 2000 |
To preserve the integrity of the authors' work we have limited your
ability to manipulate the presentations on this web site. You can
download the pdf files but you cannot edit, copy, or print any of the
presentations. We have chosen to do this to more closely approximate
your access to the material as an audience member at a presentation.
Salt Lake City Sessions, Track
Chair: Jeff
Keisler
|
|
 |
Decision Analysis Arcade: Innovations
in Practice (SC01), Dana R. Clyman |
 |
Monte Carlo Methods in
Decision Analysis (SC02), Prakash P. Shenoy |
 |
Strategy Implementation
& Decision Analysis (SD01), Mark Brodfuehrer and Brian
Hagen |
 |
Panel: Resolved - Decision Analysts
should be Certified (MB01), Ronald A. Howard |
 |
Decision Analysis & Risk (MB02),Robert
F. Bordley |
 |
Panel: The Future of Decision Analysis
Software (MC01), Don N. Kleinmuntz |
 |
Decision Analysis & Information
Systems (MD01), Robin Dillon and John Butler |
 |
Symposium: Studying the Ecological
Rationality of Simple Heuristics (MD02), Laura Martignon |
 |
Behavioral Decision Analysis
(TA01), George Wu |
 |
Group Decision Making (TC01),
L.
Robin Keller |
 |
Naturalistic Decision Making: An Alternative
to Traditional Decision Theory or a Prescription for Disaster?
(TD01), Alan J. Brothers |
 |
Generalizable Insights from Medical
Decision Analysis (TE01), Arthur S. Elstein |
 |
Generalizable Lessons from Government
Decision Analysis (WA01) Ronald G. Whitfield and Thomas
D. Wolsko |
 |
DA 2000 & Beyond: How Industry
is Learning & Applying Decision Analysis (WB01), David C.
Skinner |
If you would like to obtain a free Adobe Acrobat Reader so that you
may access the pdf versions of the presentations, please click here
Return to main page for Decision Analysis Presentations
from National Meetings
Decision Analysis Arcade: Innovations in Practice
Session: SC01
Date/Time: Sunday 13:00-14:30
Chair: Dana R. Clyman
Chair Address: University of Virginia, Darden Grad Sch. of Bus.
Adm., Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
Chair E-mail: ClymanD@darden.virginia.edu
-
SC01.1 Valuance: Decision Analysis for the Management
of an Arbitrary Process (279K)
Valuance is a new framework for applied decision theory, involving more
general value-function modeling and a recording system that tracks results
in the same terms as projected by the decision analysis model. This provides
a generalization of traditional accounting, which remains a special case.
We demonstrate with a case study.
-
SC01.2 Decision & Risk Analysis Applied to the Adaptive Enterprise
Concept
-
Daniel Owen; Strategic Business Processes;
-
Michael Kusnic; Strategic Business Processes;
-
Deborah K. Bosch; Strategic Business Processes;
D&RA enables adaptive enterprises by identifying and sensing critical
uncertainties and possibilities. Two important D&RA structures follow.
'Potential customer value' (net surplus) has 7 customer-perceivable attributes.
Assessments about future customer desires and company abilities become
internal free-market signals. Hybrid solutions from rapid, continuous change
models are robust under discontinuous change.
-
SC01.3 Predicting
the Decision-Aiding Value of Decision Research (82K, paper)
-
Rex Brown; George Mason University;
Decision-making generally needs improvement, yet decision-aiding remains
primitive. Advances must leverage practitioner experience; however, researchers
tend toward what is scientifically attractive rather than useful. Useful
research should be rewarded and its practical impact must be cheaply evaluated.
A decision theoretic measure is proposed for evaluating, comparing and
prioritizing research projects.
Return to Session Index
Monte Carlo Methods in Decision Analysis
Session: SC02
Date/Time: Sunday 13:00-14:30
Chair: Prakash P. Shenoy
Chair Address: University of Kansas, School of Bus., Summerfield
Hall, Lawrence, KS 66045-2003
Chair E-mail: pshenoy@ukans.edu
-
SC02.1 Computational Methods in Decision Analysis:
A Comparative Review (173K, postscript)
-
Concha Bielza; Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Fac. de Informatica,
Madrid, 28660 , Spain;
-
David Rios Insua; Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Fac. de Informatica,
Madrid, 28660 , Spain;
We review and compare computationally various simulation-based approaches
to decision analysis. We consider variants of deterministic methods to
account for errors in the expected utility approximation, sample path methods
and augmented simulation methods.
-
SC02.2 Foreign Exchange & Lost Opportunity in the US Department
of Defense
-
James C. Felli; Naval Postgraduate School, DRMI (64FL), 1522 Cunningham
Rd., Monterey, CA 93943-5201;
Using data from the US Air Force and Monte Carlo simulation within a decision
analytic framework, we demonstrate how the use of forward foreign exchange
contracts and currency options can reduce the financial impact of currency
fluctuation for the US DoD.
-
SC02.3 A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Solving Multi-Stage Decision
Problems
-
Prakash P. Shenoy; University of Kansas, School of Bus., Summerfield Hall,
Lawrence, KS 66045-2003;
-
John M. Charnes; University of Kansas, Sch. of Business, 222 Summerfield
Hall, Lawrence, KS 66045-2003;
We describe an MCMC method for solving multi-stage decision problems. We
start with a valuation network representation that describes a factorization
of the joint probability distribution and a factorization of the joint
utility function. We decompose the problem into stages and solve each stage
using MCMC sampling techniques.
-
SC02.4 A Specialized Partially Observed Markov
Decision Problem Form & Algorithm for Clinical Patient Management
(118K)
-
Niels Peek; Utrecht University, Dept. of Computer Sci., Utrecht, 3508 TB
, The Netherlands;
We will describe a special form of POMDP tailored to a particular clinical
patient management problem. We will also describe a new solution method
based on Monte Carlo simulation for solving such POMDP representations.
Return to Session Index
Strategy Implementation & Decision Analysis
Session: SD01
Date/Time: Sunday 15:00-16:30
Chair: Mark Brodfuehrer
Chair Address: General Motors, Design Ctr., MC 480-113-A31,
30100 Mound Rd., PO Box 9030, Warren, MI 48090-9030
Chair E-mail: mark.brodfuehrer@gm.com
Chair: Brian Hagen
Chair Address: Navigant Consulting Inc., 2440 Sand Hill Rd.,
Menlo Park, CA 94025-6900
Chair E-mail: bhagen@sdg.com
-
SD01.1 Including Implementation Uncertainty in
Decision Analysis (61K)
-
Brian Hagen; Navigant Consulting Inc., 2440 Sand Hill Rd., Menlo Park,
CA 94025-6900; bhagen@sdg.com
-
Mark Brodfuehrer; General Motors, Design Ctr., MC 480-113-A31, 30100 Mound
Rd., PO Box 9030, Warren, MI 48090-9030; mark.brodfuehrer@gm.com
Practicing decision analysts often downplay the issues of implementation
during the framing and evaluation stages of a decision. Underestimation
of what it takes to successfully implement a decision can bias an analysis
to the point of making the wrong recommendation. We provide a simple example
and discussion of including implementation uncertainty in decision analyses.
-
SD01.2 Applying Decision Tools when Implementing
Strategy in a Union Environment (75K)
Language for decision framing and describing decision tools is technically
sophisticated. Conversations within organizations usually involve highly
educated senior managers. However, effective implementation with unions
often causes leadership and membership to diverge. Decision practitioners
therefore must also communicate powerful decision concepts to valued stakeholder
groups unfamiliar with the supporting theories.
-
SD01.3 Putting People into Managing for Value
(231K)
Improving the way we manage the enterprise, our people and our intellectual
capital is essential for achieving full shareholder value. We describe
the 3 components and develop a value engine that provides a frame for integrated
strategy development and implementation.
-
SD01.4 The Transition from Decision to Implementation
(90K)
-
Mark Brodfuehrer; General Motors, Design Ctr., MC 480-113-A31, 30100 Mound
Rd., PO Box 9030, Warren, MI 48090-9030; mark.brodfuehrer@gm.com
-
Brian Hagen; Navigant Consulting Inc., 2440 Sand Hill Rd., Menlo Park,
CA 94025-6900; bhagen@sdg.com
One of the most disappointing events for a practicing decision analyst
is doing an excellent job in aligning the individuals of a corporation
to a specific decision only to find several months later that the implementation
of the decision has unraveled. We explore recommendations and experience
regarding the successful transition from decision to implementation.
Return to Session Index
Panel: Resolved - Decision Analysts should be Certified
Session: MB01
Date/Time: Monday 10:30-12:00
Chair: Ronald A. Howard
Chair Address: Stanford University, Dept. of EES & OR, Terman
Engineering Ctr., Stanford, CA 94305-4023
Chair E-mail: rhoward@stanford.edu
-
MB01.1 Panel: Resolved - Decision Analysts Should be Certified
-
Ralph L. Keeney; University of Southern California, 101 Lombard St., Ste.
704W, San Francisco, CA 94111; keeneyr@aol.com
-
Ward Edwards; Wise Decisions, Inc., 11466 Laurelcrest Rd., Studio City,
CA 91604;
-
James E. Matheson; Strategic Decisions Group, 2440 Sand Hill Rd., Menlo
Park, CA 94025-6900;
Over the years, there have been proposals that some type of accreditation
should be available or required for practicing decision analysts. A distinguished
panel will discuss the pros and cons of such credentialing. Those attending
will be invited to share their views on the subject.
Return to Session Index
Decision Analysis & Risk
Session: MB02
Date/Time: Monday 10:30-12:00
Chair: Robert F. Bordley
Chair Address: General Motors, Renaissance Center, Detroit,
MI 48098
Chair E-mail: robert.bordley@gm.com
-
MB02.1 Organizing Beliefs: A Fuzzy-Logic Method
-
Olivier Brandouy; Fac. de Droit et des Sci. Economiques, 4 Place du Presidial,
Limoges, 87000 , France; olivier.brandouy@unilim.fr
We provide a fuzzy-logic method for organizing beliefs revealed when someone
is asked to determine, in a set of 'command variables,' which one is more
appropriate to achieve an objective. This method preserves all interactions
between beliefs and allows to determine a 'preference path.' An application
for behavioral-finance is presented.
-
MB02.2 Ordinal Games
-
Jose B. Cruz; Ohio State University, 752 Dreese Lab., 2015 Neil Ave., Columbus,
OH 43210; cruz.22@osu.edu
-
Marwan A. Simaan; University of Pittsburgh, 348 Benedum Hall, Pittsburgh,
PA 15261; simaan@pitt.edu
We develop a new theory of games where there are no payoff functions, but
only a rank ordering of decisions. The objective of each player is
to select a decision that has certain degree of preference in comparison
to other choices, taking into account the choices of all other players.
-
MB02.3 Attributable Risk in Reliability & Risk Assessment
AR is an emerging statistic that the author has introduced as a research
consultant at the NASA Johnson Space Center to study space shuttle reliability
and risk assessment. AR will be described and examples provided. Fundamentally,
AR attributes to what extent a given risk factor, among perhaps many, is
responsible for a given failure.
-
MB02.4 A Target-Based Formulation of a Corporate
Utility Function (17K)
Wilson provided a utility-based framework for modeling a group as optimizing
some group utility function. We show that reinterpreting utility as the
probability of meeting an uncertain target provides an alternative approach
to this problem. We find that our formulation replicates many of Wilson's
results as well as leading to some additional results.
Return to Session Index
Panel: The Future of Decision Analysis Software
Session: MC01
Date/Time: Monday 14:15-15:45
Chair: Don N. Kleinmuntz
Chair Address: University of Illinois, Dept. of Bus. Admin.,
MC 706, 1206 South Sixth St., Champaign, IL 61820
Chair E-mail: dnk@uiuc.edu
-
MC01.1 Panel: The Future of Decision Analysis Software
-
James S. Dyer; University of Texas, Dept. of MSIS, CBA 5.202, Austin, TX
78712; j.dyer@mail.utexas.edu
-
Donald L. Keefer; Arizona State University, Dept. of Mgmt., Tempe, AZ 85287;
don.keefer@asu.edu
-
Ralph L. Keeney; University of Southern California, 101 Lombard St., Ste.
704W, San Francisco, CA 94111; keeneyr@aol.com
-
James E. Smith; Duke University, Fuqua Sch. of Bus., Box 90120, Durham,
NC 27708-0120; jes9@mail.duke.edu
-
Terry Reilly; Babson College, Math & Sci. Div., Babson Park, MA 02457-0310;
reilly@babson.edu
We will address the current state and future potential of decision analysis
software. A panel of knowledgeable decision analysts will address such
questions as: 'What features or enhancements would add the most value?'
and 'What is the appropriate role for software in decision analysis applications?'
Audience participation is encouraged.
Return to Session Index
Decision Analysis & Information Systems
Session: MD01
Date/Time: Monday 16:00-17:30
Chair: Robin Dillon
Chair Address: Virginia Tech., 7045 Haycock Rd., Ste. 341, Falls
Church, VA 22043
Chair E-mail: dillon@vt.edu
Chair: John Butler
Chair Address: Ohio State University, 2100 Neil Ave., Columbus,
OH 43210
Chair E-mail: butlerj@cob.ohio-state.edu
-
MD01.1 Comparison of Online Auctions & Name
your Price to Yield Management (272K)
-
Sam E. Bodily; University of Virginia, Darden Sch., Box 6550, Charlottesville,
VA 22906; bodilys@virginia.edu
Revenue (or yield) management has provided tremendous revenue gains for
airlines, hotels, rental car companies and many other companies. Online
vendor auctions and 'name your price' may inexpensively capture consumer
surplus and potentially do much better than revenue management. Using probabilistic
models, we compare the revenue possibilities of these 3 approaches.
-
MD01.2 Linking Preference with Information Retrieval
(806K)
A key assumption for conducting electronic commerce is that the consumer
is able to find information that satisfies a set of presumable subjective
criteria. We will outline the use of risk value models of preference as
the 'scoring' mechanism for evaluating and designing consumer searches
of the Internet.
-
MD01.3 Creating a Decision Support System to Support
Production Decisions within the Winter Wheat Supply Chain (152K)
-
Christopher W. Zobel; Virginia Tech., MS & IT Dept., 2076 Pamplin Hall,
Blacksburg, VA 24061; czobel@vt.edu
-
Eluned Jones; Virginia Tech., Agriculture & Applied Econ., 321B Hutcheson
Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061; eluned@vt.edu
We discuss the development of a computer-based DSS intended to help wheat
producers take advantage of opportunities for greater value-added production.
Along with a description of the DSS, an explanation of some of the issues
concerned with its development will be given.
-
MD01.4 ROI? Making Information Technology Decisions
(55K)
-
Robin Dillon; Virginia Tech., 7045 Haycock Rd., Ste. 341, Falls Church,
VA 22043; dillon@vt.edu
Popular business literature is constantly complaining about evaluating
IT decisions because the 'intangible' benefits of the systems are not captured
in an ROI calculation. Is the ROI for information technology decisions
an area of application that decision analysis can support?
Return to Session Index
Symposium: Studying the Ecological Rationality of Simple
Heuristics
Session: MD02
Date/Time: Monday 16:00-17:30
Chair: Laura Martignon
Chair Address: Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Ctr.
for Adaptive Behavior, Lentzeallee 94, Berlin, 14195 , Germany
Chair E-mail: martignon@mpib-berlin.mpg.de
-
MD02.1 Simple Heuristics & Military Decision Making
-
Kathryn B. Laskey; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030;
No abstract supplied.
-
MD02.2 Adaptive Decision Making
-
Laura Martignon; Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Ctr. for Adaptive
Behavior, Lentzeallee 94, Berlin, 14195 , Germany; martignon@mpib-berlin.mpg.de
-
Ulrich Hoffrage; Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Ctr. for Adaptive
Behavior, Lentzeallee 94, Berlin, 14195 , Germany;
-
Daniel Goldstein; Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Ctr. for
Adaptive Behavior, Lentzeallee 94, Berlin, 14195 , Germany;
We present analytical and simulation demonstrations of how 7 features of
the environment influence the performance of heuristics for choice tasks
using binary cues. The features are: inter-cue correlations, center of
gravity of cues, number of cues, discrimination rate (combined with validity),
compensatory structure, conditional dependencies between cues and training
set size.
-
MD02.3 Simple Heuristics when Driving
No abstract supplied.
Return to Session Index
Behavioral Decision Analysis
Session: TA01
Date/Time: Tuesday 08:30-10:00
Chair: George Wu
Chair Address: University of Chicago, Grad. School of Bus.,
1101 East 58th St., Chicago, IL 60637
Chair E-mail: george.wu@gsbpop.uchicago.edu
-
TA01.1 Measuring Value Trade-Offs
-
Philippe Delquie; INSEAD, Blvd. de Constance, Fontainebleau, , France;
We will review how some lessons learned from behavioral decision research
can be used to design better methods to measure trade-offs. We will also
discuss in what sense these assessment methods are 'better' for decision
analysis.
-
TA01.2 The Surprising Non-Prescriptiveness of Prescriptive Models &
How to Exploit It
-
Ward Edwards; Wise Decisions, Inc., 11466 Laurelcrest Rd., Studio City,
CA 91604;
Behavioral decision research grew from differences between normative and
descriptive evaluation models, inference (Bayes) and decision (Max SEU).
The 3 normative models together imply decision making is decomposable into
19 subtasks necessary for decisions, with implications for developing decision
competence tests and for designing prostheses for the decisionally impaired.
-
TA01.3 A Behavioral Decision Analysis Approach to Scenario Analysis
Scenario analysis is a widely-used approach for strategic decision making.
We explore its psychological usefulness and consider some decision analytic
ideas that maximize its value.
Return to Session Index
Group Decision Making
Session: TC01
Date/Time: Tuesday 13:00-14:30
Type: Sponsored
Sponsor: Decision Analysis Society
Track:
Cluster:
Room:
Chair: L. Robin Keller
Chair Address: University of California, Grad. Sch. of Mgmt.,
350 GSM, Irvine, CA 92697-3125
Chair E-mail: lrkeller@uci.edu,,
http://www.gsm.uci.edu/~KELLER/
Chair: Jayavel Sounderpandian
Chair Address: University of Wisconsin at Parkside, Dept. of
Business, Kenosha, WI 53141-2000
Chair E-mail: sounderp@uwp.edu
-
TC01.1 Virtual Groups & Private Preferences: Social Responsibility
in the Information Age
-
Kathleen S. Hartzel; Duquesne University, Palumbo Sch. of Bus., 802 Rockwell
Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15282-0180; hartzel@duq.edu
-
Nancy Paule Melone; Duquesne University, Palumbo Sch. of Bus. Admin., Pittsburgh,
PA 15282; nmelone@nauticom.net
-
Timothy W McGuire; Management Science Associates, Inc., 6565 Penn Ave.,
Pittsburgh, PA 15206-4490; tmcguire@msa.com
We investigate the effects of GSS, meeting structure and anonymity on the
individual preferences, group decisions and social responsibility within
a social dilemma framework. Personal preferences of majority and minority
members were strongly influenced by the face-to-face group process but
not significantly influenced by the computer-mediated process.
-
TC01.2 Guidelines for Mediating Brownfield Cleanup
Negotiations (169K)
-
Jayavel Sounderpandian; University of Wisconsin at Parkside, Dept. of Business,
Kenosha, WI 53141-2000; sounderp@uwp.edu
-
Nancy Frank; University of Wisconsin, Dept. of Urban Planning, Milwaukee,
WI 53201-0413;
Brownfield cleanup projects need cooperation from the current owner of
the site, the prospective buyer/developer and the local government. Guidelines
are given for a mediator who is charged with finalizing a contingent contract
among the 3 parties through negotiation. The guidelines use EU optimization.
-
TC01.3 Personal Self-Disclosure & Competitive & Cooperative
Group Decision Making
-
Leah Dietz; Duke University, Fuqua Sch. of Bus., Box 90210, Durham, NC
27708-0210; ledietz@mail.duke.edu
-
Susan E. Brodt; Duke University, Fuqua Sch. of Bus., Box 90120, Durham,
NC 27708; susan.brodt@duke.edu
We empirically studied how 3-person groups create and distribute resources,
after having played a 'getting acquainted' game or not. Results quantified
the value of relational concern developed through self-disclosure, revealing
an inverse relationship for competitive and cooperative contexts. Self-disclosure
heightened self-interest in competitive contexts and heightened communal-interest
in cooperative contexts.
-
TC01.4 Shifts in Willingness to Pay when Individuals or Pairs Face Ambiguous
& Unambiguous Risky Choices
-
Rakesh K. Sarin; UCLA, Anderson Grad. Sch. of Mgmt., 110 Westwood Plaza,
Box 951481, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481; rakesh.sarin@anderson.ucla.edu
-
L. Robin Keller; University of California, Grad. Sch. of Mgmt., 350 GSM,
Irvine, CA 92697-3125; lrkeller@uci.edu,,
http://www.gsm.uci.edu/~KELLER/
-
Jayavel Sounderpandian; University of Wisconsin at Parkside, Dept. of Business,
Kenosha, WI 53141-2000; sounderp@uwp.edu
Subjects expressed their willingness to pay for a 50% chance of winning
$100 and for a similar ambiguous gamble. They were then randomly paired
and each pair expressed its willingness to pay for essentially the same
gambles. The responses are analyzed for risky and safety shifts.
Return to Session Index
Naturalistic Decision Making: An Alternative to Traditional
Decision Theory or a Prescription for Disaster?
Session: TD01
Date/Time: Tuesday 14:45-16:15
Chair: Alan J. Brothers
Chair Address: Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
PO Box 999 K8-03, Richland, WA 99352
Chair E-mail: alan.brothers@pnl.gov
-
TD01.1 Panel: Naturalistic Decision Making: An Alternative to Traditional
Decision Theory or a Prescription for Disaster?
-
Lee Roy Beach; University of Arizona, Coll. of Bus. & Public Admin.,
Tucson, AZ 85721;
-
Robert F. Bordley (19k); General Motors,
Renaissance Center, Detroit, MI 48098; robert.bordley@gm.com
-
Marvin S. Cohen; Cognitive Technologies, Inc.;
-
L. Robin Keller; University of California, Grad. Sch. of Mgmt., 350 GSM,
Irvine, CA 92697-3125; lrkeller@uci.edu,,
http://www.gsm.uci.edu/~KELLER/
-
Gary S. Klein; Klein Associates, Inc.;
-
Jim Wise (458K); Eco*Integrations, Inc.;
Naturalistic decision making (NDM) is a new paradigm that studies expert
decision making in natural environments. The focus is on rational actors
having content expertise making good decisions. The session will introduce
NDM along with applications, followed by a panel discussion concerning
the pros and cons relative to traditional decision making.
Return to Session Index
Generalizable Insights from Medical Decision Analysis
Session: TE01
Date/Time: Tuesday 16:30-18:00
Chair: Arthur S. Elstein
Chair Address: University of Illinois, Dept. of Medical Education,
808 South Wood St., MC 591, Chicago, IL 60612-7309
Chair E-mail: aelstein@uic.edu
-
TE01.1 Ethics & Medical Decision Making
-
Scott B. Cantor; University of Texas, Anderson Cancer Ctr., 1515 Holcombe
Blvd., Box 40, Houston, TX 77030-4095; sbcantor@mdanderson.org
Decision analysis and medical decision making both acknowledge the ethical
implications of their methodologies. Decision analysis in health care decisions
has become a frequent practice since 1975; tradeoffs have become clearer
but ethical controversies remain. We discuss contributions of medical decision
making to decision analysis, focusing on ethical concerns.
-
TE01.2 Decision Analysis: Contributions from Medical Decision Making
-
Francois Sainfort; University of Wisconsin, Dept. of IE & Preventive
Med., 1513 University Ave., Madison, WI 53706; sainfort@engr.wisc.edu
We review how the field of medical decision making has contributed to decision
analysis. In particular, we focus on contributions to utility theory development,
testing and application. We also discuss current challenges faced by theorists
and practitioners of medical decision making.
-
TE01.3 Stochastic Trees in Medical Decision Modeling
(228K)
-
Gordon B. Hazen; Northwestern University, IEMS Dept., Evanston, IL 60208-3119;
Stochastic trees are a recent modeling innovation for medical decision
analysis which graphically combine decision trees and continuous-time Markov
chains. Stochastic trees can usually be factored into simpler components,
a process which eases model formulation and presentation. Applications
to medical cost effectiveness and medical decision analysis will be presented.
-
TE01.4 Medical Decision Analysis: Lessons Learned
(46K)
-
Arthur S. Elstein; University of Illinois, Dept. of Medical Education,
808 South Wood St., MC 591, Chicago, IL 60612-7309; aelstein@uic.edu
Decision analytic methods, including clinical guidelines and evidence-based
medicine, were introduced into clinical medicine in response to concerns
about practice variation and cost-effectiveness. Simple models, while more
acceptable to physicians, don't satisfy professional standards. Complex
models, however, risk disempowering physicians or being ignored. These
tradeoffs depend on who wants the analysis.
Return to Session Index
Generalizable Lessons from Government Decision Analysis
Session: WA01
Date/Time: Wednesday 08:30-10:00
Chair: Ronald G. Whitfield
Chair Address: Argonne National Laboratory, DIS-900, Argonne,
IL 60439
Chair E-mail: rgwhitfield@anl.gov
Chair: Thomas D. Wolsko
Chair Address: Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass
Ave., DIS-900, Argonne, IL 60439
Chair E-mail: tdwolsko@anl.gov
-
WA01.1 R&D Portfolio Analysis for Department of Energy Environmental
Management
-
Gregory S. Parnell; US Military Academy, Dept. of Systems Eng., Mahan Hall,
Rm. 342, West Point, NY 10996; gparnell@usma.edu
-
Sheila Jordan; SAIC, 9 East Second St., Frederick, MD 21701; sjordan@unitec-md.com
-
David Geiser; Department of Energy, EM Office of Sci. & Tech., Cloverlead,
Germantown, MD; david.geiser@em.doe.gov
The DoE's Office of Science & Technology is responsible for an annual
budget of more than $250M. We describe the R&D portfolio analysis we
have successfully used for the past 3 years to help environmental management
decision-makers select the best R&D portfolio. We also discuss lessons
learned.
-
WA01.2 Use & Non-Use of Decision Analysis in
a Major Department of Energy Decision at Hanford (98K)
-
David A. Seaver; Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box
999, MS K8-03, Richland, WA 99352; david.seaver@pnl.gov
-
Andy Hesser; Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box 999,
MS H6-61, Richland, WA 99352; andrew.hesse@pnl.gov
-
Mark Robershotte; Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box
999, MS H6-61, Richland, WA 99352; mark.robershotte@pnl.gov
In 1998, the DoE made a multi-billion dollar decision to authorize a privatized
contract to process nuclear waste at Hanford. The decision, decision-analytic
concepts used to structure the decision, some specific analyses and lessons
learned regarding the application of decision analysis in a highly visible,
political decision are discussed.
-
WA01.3 Selecting an Airport Vulnerability Assessment
Methodology (224K)
-
Rick Lazarick; Federal Aviation Administration;
We address the use of decision science methods in the evaluation and selection
of a methodology for evaluating the vulnerability of airports to terrorist
acts. The FAA and its assembled Blue Ribbon Panel rigorously employed the
evaluation methods and reached a conclusive decision on the most desirable
methodology.
-
WA01.4 Multi-Attribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear
Emergency Management (62K)
-
Raimo P. Hamalainen; Helsinki University of Technology, Systems Analysis
Lab., PO Box 1100, Espoo, 02015 , Finland; raimo@hut.fi
-
Mats R. K. Lindstedt; Helsinki University of Technology, Systems Analysis
Lab., PO Box 1100, Espoo, 02015 , Finland; mats.lindstedt@hut.fi
-
Kari Sinkko; Radiation & Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK); kari.sinkko@stuk.fi
The Finnish radiation protection authorities practiced MAUT-based risk
analysis in the early phase decisions on countermeasures after a simulated
nuclear accident. The goal was to deal with conflicting objectives, different
parties involved and uncertainties inherent in such crisis situations.
This study was part of the EU-RODOS project.
-
WA01.5 Decision Analysis for Evaluating Environmental Regulation: Cautionary
Tales
-
Rex Brown; George Mason University;
Decision analysis attempts to evaluate the cost-benefit of proposed and
past regulations realistically often run afoul of government and business
politics. Examples and suggested remedies are drawn from consulting experience,
including a Congressional mandate to EPA to determine if the Clear Air
Act has been (or will be) worth its cost.
Return to Session Index
DA 2000 & Beyond: How Industry is Learning &
Applying Decision Analysis
Session: WB01
Date/Time: Wednesday 10:15-11:45
Chair: David C. Skinner
Chair Address: Decision Strategies, Inc., 13410 Queensbury Lane,
Houston, TX 77079
Chair E-mail: skinnerdc@aol.com
-
WB01.1 Decision Analysis in the 21st Century: Integrated Decision Management
-
James McCuish; BP/Amoco, 3700 Bay Area Blvd., Houston, TX 77058;
Integrated Decision Management enhances decision analysis and real options
methodologies by actively linking them into the organization's systems
and cultures for value engineering, project management and capital portfolio
optimization. Ignoring this often creates an 'orphan status' for decision
analysis that does not deliver timely results or long-term value.
-
WB01.2 Decision Analysis in the 21st Century: Integrated Portfolio Management
The drive for value and R&D efficiency has led to new thinking about
the principles and methods for evaluating pharmaceutical projects using
probabilistic discounted cash flow and real options methods. Integrated
Portfolio Management incorporates the best practices and software automation
into a modern system for today's leading companies.
-
WB01.3 Decision Analysis in the 21st Century: Pharmaceutical Portfolio
The application of Integrated Portfolio Management to a pharmaceutical
portfolio led to a significant R&D savings and enhanced understanding
of each project's potential and risk. The approach used probabilistic cash
flow and real options methods to appropriately value each type of project.
Portfolio Wizard software enabled quick optimization and display of scenarios.
-
WB01.4 Decision Analysis in the 21st Century: Multimedia Training
-
David C. Skinner; Decision Strategies, Inc., 13410 Queensbury Lane, Houston,
TX 77079; skinnerdc@aol.com
A series of hands-on workshops combined with Internet-based tutorials are
available to learn Integrated Decision Management. The spectrm of concepts
and skills ranges from the fundamentals for general audiences to advanced
topics for practitioners. Innovative use of multimedia technology adds
depth and individual flexibility to the learning process.
Return to Session Index