Decision Analysis Presentations
INFORMS Philadelphia, Fall 1999

To preserve the integrity of the authors' work we have limited your ability to manipulate the presentations on this web site.  You can download the pdf files but you cannot edit, copy, or print any of the presentations.  We have chosen to do this to more closely approximate your access to the material as an audience member at a presentation.

Philadelphia Sessions, Track Chair: John Lathrop

Medical Decision Making (SA01), Francois Sainfort
Decision Analysis & Computational Challenges (SA05),  Ross Shacter & Eric Horvitz
Insights from Past Lives of Decision Analysis Practitioners (SB01),   Jeff Keisler
Decision Analysis I (SB05), Larry Phillips
Asking the Right Questions: Experiences Teaching & Learning about Decision Analysis Practice (SC01), David Lowell
Utilities for Groups & Corporations (SD01), James E. Smith
Decision Analysis Society Practice Award Finalist Presentations (MA01),  Donald Keefer
Risk & Preferences in Space Missions (MC01), Robin Dillon
As Time Goes By: Environmental Decision Analysis Models with Intertemporal Components (MD01),  L. Robin Keller
Decision Analysis Awards (TA01)
Best Student Paper Award 1999  Assessing a Multi-attribute Model for Ranking Risks, Kara Morgan, Research Triangle Institute, Washington DC.
Panel: Decision Analysis: Where do We Go from Here? (TC01), Detlof von Winterfeldt
Mindful Collaboration: How to Help Clients Prepare for Collaborative Meetings about High-Stakes, High-Risk Decisions (TD01), Jeffrey K. Belkora
Risk Management and Societal Decision Making,  Howard Kunreuther
Decision Analysis Arcade (TE01), Dana R. Clyman
Tutorial: Design System Failure Away with Systems Engineering & Decision Analysis (WA01), Dennis Buede
The Future of Decision Computation (WA04), Ron Howard

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Medical Decision Making

Session: SA01
Date/Time: Sunday 08:30-10:00
Chair: Francois Sainfort
Chair Address: University of Wisconsin, Dept. of IE, 1513 University Ave., Madison, WI 53706
Chair E-mail: sainfort@engr.wisc.edu
SA01.1 Serendipity in Diagnostic Imaging: Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Breast (97K)
MRI of the breast has been proposed for evaluation of suspicious lesions noted on mammogram or clinical breast examination. In a preliminary assessment of this new technology, we use decision modeling to determine the probability of cancer in a lesion found by MRI but not by prior diagnostic work.
SA01.2 Patient Outcomes in Radiology:  Some Issues and an Approach to Short-Term Health-Related Quality of Life (71K)
SA01.3 What's Really Important? Agreement between Prostate Cancer Patients & their Clinicians (34K)
Eighty-three patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer and their clinicians gave time-tradeoff evaluations of 3 multi-attribute health states and the patient's own health state. They also provided attribute importance weights. Patient-clinician agreement was quite low for utilities and weights, but moderate for evaluations of the patient's current health state.
SA01.4 Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Therapies for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (90K)
A simulation model of Type 1 diabetes progression, impact on quality of life and associated medical costs is used to analyze the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative treatment strategies. We report the application of the model, the results and their sensitivity to changes in modeling parameters.

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Decision Analysis & Computational Challenges

Session: SA05
Date/Time: Sunday 08:30-10:00
Chair: Eric Horvitz
Chair Address: Microsoft Research, Decision Theory Group, One Microsoft Way, Redmond, WA 98052-6399
Chair E-mail: horvitz@microsoft.com
Chair: Ross D. Shachter
Chair Address: Stanford University, EES & OR Dept., Terman Ctr., Stanford, CA 94305-4023
Chair E-mail: shachter@stanford.edu
SA05.1 The Value of Control Revisited (62K)
The value of control is the amount a decision-maker should be willing to pay to transform an uncertainty into a decision, that is, to choose its state. Using recent results in causal modeling, we reexamine the value of control and how to compute and apply it.
SA05.2 Efficient Representations for Aggregate Belief & Compact Securities Markets (1469K)
Bayesian networks can exploit conditional independence to compactly represent individual belief and efficiently compute decision-theoretic queries over large domains. We report both positive and negative results bearing on the possibility of exploiting conditional independence to achieve similar efficiency in models of consensus belief and general market equilbrium under uncertainty.
SA05.3 One Practitioner's Perspective on Decision Analysis & its Computational Challenges (1125K)
Using some examples, the reality of computational challenge is reviewed. The more computational power/capability doesn't necessarily mean the better DA. We will discuss trade off issues such as framing, model complexity, seeking insights vs. accuracy of prediction, strategic vs. tactical decisions and ease of use of DA software.
SA05.4 Leveraging Probability & Utility in Computational Systems & Applications
I will present research on the use of decision-analytic concepts for making automated decisions about the allocation of processing and memory resources in computer systems. The methods highlight challenges and opportunities in the realm of harnessing representations of probability and utility to enhance the behavior of computer systems and applications.

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Insights from Past Lives of Decision Analysis Practitioners

Session: SB01
Date/Time: Sunday 10:15-11:45
Chair: Jeff Keisler
Chair Address: , One Boston Place, 39th Floor, Boston, MA 02108-4467
Chair E-mail: jkeisler@netzero.net
SB01.1 An Interdisciplinary Look at Decision Analysis
Decision analysis is especially useful in interdisciplinary problems because different effects and constituencies have to be weighted appropriately in order to obtain a solution. This idea will be highlighted by drawing on the author's academic research in biophysical chemistry and industrial experience.
SB01.2 Using Game Theory in Strategic Decision Analysis (70K)
For business decision problems with a game theoretic flavor, practical decision analysis tools can be augmented to reintegrate the concepts of decision tree and game tree. We explore when and how this could be useful.
SB01.3 Exploiting Parallelism in Decision Problems (96K)
Many decision problems have an inherently parallel nature, but often times the parallelism goes unexploited. Through analogy with parallel computation, we develop a set of constructs to describe this aspect of decision problems. We demonstrate the concepts by applying them to resource allocation problems.
SB01.4 Ideas for Decision Analysis from Model Theory (24K)
Ideas from model theory, an area within mathematical logic, are explored for potential application in decision analysis. Definitions for concepts such as models, theories, expressability and decidability may be useful in describing how different people in an organization think and what can happen when they come together.

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Decision Analysis I

Session: SB05
Date/Time: Sunday 10:15-11:45
Chair: Lawrence D. Phillips
Chair Address: London School of Economics & Political Science, Dept. of Operational Research, Houghton St., London, WC2A 2AE , UK
Chair E-mail: larry_phillips@msn.com
SB05.1 Emerging Roles for Management Science Topics in Strategic Planning (35K)
In strategic planning, issues in finance, marketing and management often capture the greatest attention. Other than principles of operations management, major roles for MS topics are not obvious. Recent software developments for strategy analysis have included significant uses of DA and simulation. Several examples will be presented.
SB05.2 withdrawn - author request of 10/15
SB05.3 withdrawn - author request of 9/21
SB05.4 An Introduction to Decision Conferencing (461K)
Decision conferencing is a series of intensive working meetings whose unique feature is the creation, on-the-spot, of a multi-attribute decision analytic model which provides participants with a 'tool for thinking'. The paper presents the latest developments in this 'socio-technical' approach to decision analysis.
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Asking the Right Questions: Experiences Teaching & Learning about Decision Analysis Practice

Session: SC01
Date/Time: Sunday 13:15-14:45
Chair: David G. Lowell
Chair Address: Santa Clara University, OMIS Dept., 323 Kenna Hall, Santa Clara, CA 95053
Chair E-mail: davelowell@earthlink.net
SC01.1 Developing Corporate Decision Analysis Capability
Experience with hundreds of executives and professionals provides insight into the following aspects of teaching decision analysis in a corporate setting: Which concepts are readily transferable in a classroom setting? What skills require substantial hands-on experience and coaching? What are typical timetables for various levels of skill acquisition?
SC01.2 Building Decision Analysis Capability: An Instructional Framework Tested by Student Experience
Decision analysis learned in a classroom does not prepare the student to conduct a decision analysis in practice. We discuss a framework for teaching the practice of decision analysis that evolved from student experiences in a projects course at Stanford's EES&OR Department.
SC01.3 Teaching & Learning about Decision Analysis Practice (544K)
In our experience teaching decision analysis practice to executives and graduate students in business and engineering, we have found the most important lessons are listening well, communicating clearly, modeling concisely and taking an iterative approach. We discuss approaches to facilitate students learning these skills.

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Utilities for Groups & Corporations

Session: SD01
Date/Time: Sunday 15:00-16:30
Chair: James E. Smith
Chair Address: Duke University, Fuqua Sch. of Bus., Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120
Chair E-mail: jes9@mail.duke.edu
SD01.1 Multiperson Utility (131K)
We set the problem of preference aggregation in a context of incomplete preferences. The main result is that a hierarchy (formally, a spanning tree) of bilateral agreements along with the extended Pareto rule is sufficient to build a complete preference for groups.
SD01.2 Risk Tolerances for Quasi-Syndicates & Publicly Held Firms (31K)
We present an extension of the classic risk tolerance aggregation result of Wilson (1968) in the context of a financial market where investors hold many different portfolios. Our market-based analysis is compared with observed and assessed risk tolerances for 15 publicly-traded energy firms.
SD01.3 The Impact of Risk Attitude Approximations on Decision Analysis Results
There is a 'folk theorem' in decision analysis practice that says risk aversion doesn't matter in many practical decisions, and that when risk attitude does matter it is often adequate to use an exponential utility function. We report the results of an extensive simulation test of this conjecture.
SD01.4 Risk-Sharing & Corporate Risk Attitudes (55K)
We consider the problem of deriving a corporate utility function from the risk preferences of the company's shareholders. Though we cannot uniquely determine the corporate utility function (except under very special circumstances), we can place bounds on corporate risk tolerances and certainty equivalents based on the preferences of the shareholders.

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Decision Analysis Society Practice Award Finalist Presentations


Session: MA01
Date/Time: Monday 08:15-09:45
Chair: Donald L. Keefer
Chair Address: Arizona State University, Dept. of Mgmt., 945 East Leeward Lane, Tempe, AZ 85283-1939
Chair E-mail: don.keefer@asu.edu

Risk & Preferences in Space Missions

Session: MC01
Date/Time: Monday 13:15-14:45
Chair: Robin Dillon
Chair Address: Virginia Tech., Dept. of MS & Info. Tech., Pamplin Coll. of Bus.
Chair E-mail: dillon@vt.edu
MC01.1 Decision Analysis of Space Projects (2009K)
Many of the current research topics, including valuing space missions and determining the appropriate level of quantitative analysis, are not new. Decision analysis research first examined these topics in the late 1960s. We will provide some historical perspective on these topics with recommendations for the future of the research.
MC01.2 Valuing Space Missions (81K)
Space missions confront a range of engineering and scientific uncertainties. They provide value via scientific advances, public excitement, and application potential. We suggest a formal framework for incorporating these factors to quantify the value of a proposed mission. This approach could prove useful for a wide variety of NASA decisions.
MC01.3 Strategic Technology Portfolio Selection: An Option Pricing Approach for NASA (145K)
We examine the use of a formal option-pricing approach for NASA technology. The approach must consider the public goods aspects of the ultimate products and must treat the underlying uncertainties of both the costs and benefits. We offer a computational method that quantifies the option value of a technology.
MC01.4 A Method for Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis with an Unmanned Space Mission Illustration (86K)
Currently, risk modeling tools focus on quantifying either technical or management risks. These tools, while beneficial, are often used in isolation. Since it is difficult to simultaneously balance cost, schedule and performance and dependencies among projects, managers who face these problems can benefit from an integrated programmatic risk analysis approach.

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As Time Goes By: Environmental Decision Analysis Models with Intertemporal Components

Session: MD01
Date/Time: Monday 15:00-16:30
Chair: L. Robin Keller
Chair Address: University of California, Grad. Sch. of Mgmt., 350 GSM, Irvine, CA 92697-3125
Chair E-mail: lrkeller@uci.edu,, http://www.gsm.uci.edu/~keller/
MD01.1 Intergenerational Discount Rates (59K)
Whereas many environmental decisions have very long-term consequences (across generations), most time preference research examines relatively short delays (decades or less). Some health economists argue that intergenerational discount rates should be smaller than intragenerational rates, perhaps even 0. This empirical study compares decision makers' actual inter- and intragenerational discount rates.
MD01.2 Preferences for Income & Health Distributions: A Verbal Protocol Analysis
Subjects spoke aloud while choosing between pairs of future income or health distributions. For income, subjects preferred constant distributions; for health, they liked decreasing ones. Subjects explained that they wanted distributions to match their ideal pattern of consumption, and they wanted income distributions to be easy to manage.
MD01.3 Risk Perception in the Short Run & in the Long Run
Perceived risk is an important component in evaluating investment alternatives. We compare subjects' risk perceptions for short-term and for long-term investment alternatives. We also investigate how the perception is influenced by the way the alternatives are presented.
MD01.4 Modeling Environmental Decisions over Time (42K)
Insights from experiments on preferences for temporal streams of environmental outcomes are used to deduce implications for prescriptive decision analysis elicitation procedures. We describe how the results are applied to typical environmental decisions, such as remediation of possible electro-magnetic field risks.
MD01.5 Discounting Utility? (44K)
We examine the normative appropriateness of the discounted utility model. We argue that some well-accepted normative principles for preferences over time are logically incompatible.

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Panel: Decision Analysis: Where do We Go from Here?

Session: TC01
Date/Time: Tuesday 13:00-14:30
Chair: Detlof von Winterfeldt
Chair Address: University of Southern California, Sch. of Policy/Planning/Dev., VKC 368, Los Angeles, CA 90089
Chair E-mail: detlof@aol.com
TC01.1 Panel: Decision Analysis - Where do We Go from Here?
In many quiet ways, decision analysis has become an important part of several fields, including computer science, medical decision making, business strategy, finance and environmental management. This panel brings experts from these fields together to discuss the future of decision analysis.

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Mindful Collaboration: How to Help Clients Prepare for Collaborative Meetings about High-Stakes, High-Risk Decisions

Session: TD01
Date/Time: Tuesday 14:45-16:15
Chair: Jeffrey K. Belkora
Chair Address: Community Breast Health Project, UCSF Breast Oncology Program, 1045 Marcussen Dr., Menlo Park, CA 94025
Chair E-mail: jeff@onyourmind.com
TD01.1 Tutorial: Mindful Collaboration: How to Help Clients Prepare for Collaborative Meetings about High-Stakes, High-Risk Decisions (17K)
We present a framework for facilitating collaborative decisions found in industry, medicine and the public arena. This framework, Mindful Collaboration, integrates the disciplines of decision analysis and action science and has been validated in the context of the medical decisions shared by breast cancer patients and their physicians.

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Risk Management and Societal Decision Making

Session:
Date/Time:
Chair: Howard Kunreuther
Chair Address: OPIM Dept., Wharton School, University of Pennsyvlania, Philadelphia, PA  19107
Chair E-mail: kunreuth@wharton.upenn.edu
Effects of Deregulation on Nuclear Power Safety (36K)
Deregulation can affect human performance, and hence safety.  Possible effects include: downsizing; increased overtime or subcontracting; training and safety cutbacks; morale changes; increased automation; and reduced industry benchmarking.  Historical case studies of other deregulated or restructured industries will be used to investigate possible impacts of deregulation on nuclear power safety.
Numbers and Values: Reconciling Needs of Risk Managers and Communities
Risk managers require good numbers and sound deliberative processes involving concerned stakeholders.  Yet there is often little overlap between the two efforts.  I discuss a study that uses prescriptive insights from decision analysis to develop community value tradeoffs through small-group evaluations as part of an adaptive decisionmaking process.
The Affection Effect in Insurance Decisions (57K)
Experiments suggest that  intention to buy insurance is heavily influenced by such affective factors as attachment to the object and worry that it may be damaged or lost. More generally, choices under risk appear to be influenced not only by probabilities and outcomes but also by emotional concerns.

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Decision Analysis Arcade

Session: TE01
Date/Time: Tuesday 16:30-18:00
Chair: Dana R. Clyman
Chair Address: University of Virginia, Darden Grad Sch. of Bus. Adm., Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
Chair E-mail: clymand@darden.gbus.virginia.edu
TE01.1 Sequential Valuation Networks & Asymmetric Decision Problems (932K)
We deal with representation and solution of asymmetric decision problems. We describe a new representation called sequential valuation networks - a hybrid of Covaliu & Oliver's sequential decision diagrams and Shenoy's valuation networks. We illustrate our technique by representing and solving Howard's used car buyer problem in complete detail.
TE01.2 The Link between Organizational Intelligence & Business Results (620K)
Since the publication of The Smart Organization, we have conducted extensive surveys linking our measure of organizational intelligence to performance. The result: smart organizations perform better, particularly in the areas of profitable growth. This demonstrates that the principles of the smart organization correlate with desirable actual business results.

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Tutorial: Design System Failure Away with Systems Engineering & Decision Analysis

Session: WA01
Date/Time: Wednesday 08:30-10:00
Chair: Dennis M. Buede
Chair Address: George Mason University, Dept. of Systems Eng. & OR, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
Chair E-mail: dbuede@gmu.edu
WA01.1 Tutorial: Design System Failure Away with Systems Engineering & Decision Analysis (98K)
In this tutorial, we introduce several techniques to support the definition of the engineering design problem, which includes the value space and trade space for making the design decisions. We then provide new material on how decision analysis can be used to address hierarchically defined, asynchronously solved design decisions.

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The Future of Decision Computation

Session: WA04
Date/Time: Wednesday 08:30-10:00
Chair: Ronald A. Howard
Chair Address: Stanford University, Eng. & Economic Systems Dept., Terman 324, Stanford, CA 94305-4025
WA04.1 The Future of Decision Computation
We currently have many computational aids to assist in making better decisions. They differ in their philosophy, capability, required education of the user, ease-of-use, and cost. This session will present the present state of the field and the developments we may expect in the future.


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Last Updated February 1, 2000
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