Decision Analysis Working Paper Abstract
Archive
WP030017
|
Title: Javelin Diagrams: A Graphical Tool for Probabilistic Sensitivity
Analysis
Authors: James C. Felli Eli Lily
and Gordon B. Hazen Northwestern
University
Date: December 2002
Status: forthcoming Decision Analysis
In order to demonstrate post- hoc robustness of decision problems to parameter
estimates, analysts may conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, assigning
distributions to uncertain parameters and computing the probability of
decision change. In contrast to classical threshold proximity methods of
sensitivity analysis, no appealing graphical methods are available to present
the results of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Here we introduce
an analog of tornado diagrams for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, which
we call javelin diagrams. Javelin diagrams are graphical augmentations
of tornado diagrams displaying both the probability of decision change
and the information value associated with individual parameters or parameter
sets. We construct javelin diagrams for simple problems, discuss their
properties, and illustrate their realistic application via a probabilistic
sensitivity analysis of a seven-parameter decision analysis from the medical
literature.
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