Decision Analysis Working Paper Abstract
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WP030013
|
Title: Logic and Motivation in Risk Reserach: A Nuclear Waste
Test Case
Authors: Rex
Brown George Mason Universtiy
Date: January 2003
Status: Under Review
After two decades of wasteful investigation, federal approval of a nuclear
waste site is drawing to a close. Large-scale research to assure that major
hazards such as this are socially acceptable is often highly inefficient.
A regulatory remedy is to require, not only that risk assessment based
on current knowledge be acceptable, but also that new information would
not show it to be unacceptable. Most important, research to test regulatory
compliance has to be managed cost-effectively. This calls for an explicit
and enforceable discipline on research activities that can resist powerful
conflicting interests. A procedure is proposed that
• Sets targets for the first and second-order assessment of
contributing risks,
• Allocates research resources to close any gap between current and
target assessments cost-effectively, and
• Re-allocates resources, as evidence evolves.
The perspectives of license applicant and society are distinguished. The
argument is based on consulting to nuclear waste and other senior risk
managers.
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